The Tangled “Web” of Cisco, EMC and VMware

I recently wrote some articles on SeekingAlpha.com on the Cisco/EMC/VMware dichotomous relationship, Palo Alto Networks and Infoblox.  I have provided a quick summary and links to these articles below.

Cisco/EMC/VMware: I continue to be positive on Cisco stock and expect the company to formally launch its widely anticipated Insieme product at the Interop NY trade show in October.  CEO John Chambers will be keynoting at the Interop conference. I do not think John has done a keynote at an Interop trade show for many years, so it is likely Cisco wants to use this trade show as a platform to make a big announcement.  The launch of Insieme, the recent acquisition by Cisco of solid state drive storage vendor WHIPTAIL and the introduction of the NSX network virtualization platform by VMware at VMworld a few weeks ago continue to highlight the increasingly dichotomous relationship between Cisco and EMC/VMware.  I think Cisco and EMC/VMware will continue to promote their VCE partnership which has been successful to date, but at the same time seek to both be the leading player in the virtual and physical domains of the emerging next generation software defined data center.  At some point, one has to question when one of these companies makes a strategic move that could truly threaten the VCE relationship.

Palo Alto Networks:  While Palo Alto Networks remains a high growth company and leader in the security market, I am not positive on the stock given its high valuation, the low growth nature of the overall security firewall appliance market and the beginning shift in security spending towards cloud based security solutions.  Palo Alto does have a cloud based product called WildFire, and thus could capture a good part of the shift in security spend. To me, the success or lack of success of WildFire will be the main catalyst to watch for the stock in the longer term as well as the ultimate outcome of its ongoing litigation with Juniper Networks.  As a side note, I also was not a big fan of the company’s decision to exclude its legal expense related to its ongoing litigation with Juniper from its pro-forma guidance.  To me legal expenses related to lawsuits, inventory write-downs etc. are part of ongoing operations and should not be excluded from pro-forma results.  Obviously, there are many different opinions on this topic and I am sure Palo Alto had some valid reasons whey they chose to exclude the legal expense from their guidance.

Infoblox: I have been positive on Infoblox given it has a leadership position in a unique niche in the automated network control market and is seeing new product success via their DNS firewall security product.  DNS cyber attacks are becoming more prevalent, which could set the framework for increased awareness and demand for the Infoblox DNS firewall.  The stock, however, has had a significant appreciation this year and at this point the valuation probably does not support significant upside from these levels.