Telco Capex, Big IT War Chests and Optical Component Stocks

I have been traveling quite a bit these past couple of weeks and working on some consulting projects, but wanted to provide a quick update on topics I have been writing about in the past few months.

Telco Capex:  As a continuation of prior blog posts since November of last year, I continue to believe telecom capital spending trends will be positive in 2013 and the momentum still remains positive.  Telco operators are often like Wall Street in that they follow the “herd mentality”, namely, they tend to follow each other in either being offensive or defensive in their respective spending plans.  The setup for a favorable capital spending cycle in 2013 seemed good given the challenging 2011 and 2012 spending environment led to a period of underinvestment going into the build-out cycles associated with LTE, Data Center connectivity and residential broadband upgrades.  While 2011 and 2012 were years of preservation of capital and a defensive posture, 2013 and perhaps 2014 will be years where telecom operators go on the offensive by investing in new technologies in an attempt to gain share and offer new services.  I have already written about how we have seen such offensive moves in the US (e.g. AT&T and Sprint) and Europe (KPN, Telecom Italia, and DT).  Last week, we got the important endorsement of this trend from China Mobile, the wireless operator with the largest wireless capital spending budget in the world.  China Mobile announced its 2013 capital spending budget will be up 49% over 2012, well above analyst expectations of a 23% increase.  I continue to be favorable on telecom equipment stocks given this ongoing positive momentum in capital spending in 2013 and view Ericsson as a reasonable way to play this cycle.   It is important to realize here, however, that most telecom equipment stocks are cyclical, not secular, stocks. Ericsson is up over 50% from the bottom and is already discounting the recovery in telecom capital spending. The “easy money” likely has been made in the stock, although I still think there might be another 10%-20% upside from here.

Big IT War Chests: This past week Salesforce.com raised about $1B through a convertible note while EMC/VMWare announced plans to IPO their Pivotal Big Data/Cloud initiative sometime in the future.  I view both of these events as ongoing evidence how Big IT companies (e.g. Cisco, IBM, Oracle, EMC/VMWare, etc…) are gearing up for an M&A cycle to better position each of them in the battle for Everything Cloud (e.g. Big Data, SDN, Data Center Virtualization etc…).  Salesforce.com already has about $1.8B in cash/investments and generates over $500m a year in free cash flow. The company also has a very high PE multiple of almost 90x 2013 earnings.  Acquisition targets, especially private companies, may find taking Saleforce.com stock as too risky given the high multiple and would prefer cash.  I believe Oracle’s recent acquisition of Eloqua (announced in December) perhaps accelerated Saleforce.com’s desire to have a greater cash balance to have a greater war chest for future acquisitions. In order for Saleforece.com to compete for such acquisitions against more cash rich companies like Oracle, Cisco etc…, they needed to increase the cash balance.  EMC/VMWare on the other hand have the other problem.  In the past, VMWare provided EMC a high multiple currency to make stock based acquisitions, while EMC and VMWare both have had ample cash to make cash based acquisitions. The recent selloff in VMWare stock post reporting 4Q12 results, however, lowered VMWare’s forward P/E multiple to about 20x vs. the historical average of about 35x-40x.  The announcement of the potential IPO of Pivotal in the future helped both stocks and ultimately will provide EMC/VMWare another high multiple stock to make stock based acquisitions.    With Cisco aiming to be more of a software company, Oracle trying to expand more in the telecom space (e.g. Acme Packet acquisition) and all the Big IT companies striving to be leaders in Big Data, SDN and Everything Cloud, we are likely to see an increasing M&A cycle in 2013 and 2014 and these companies are getting their respective war chests ready.

Optical Component Stocks: Silicon Photonics vs. The Cycle: In a prior blog post, I expressed some concern on optical component stocks (e.g. JDSU, FNSR etc…) given the technological threat posed by the emerging Silicon Photonics technology.  I am still concerned about how Silicon Photonics initiatives at Intel and others as well as vertical integration efforts by large buyers of optical components like Cisco (through the acquisitions of CoreOptics and Lightwire), will impact future valuations and stock performance of optical component stocks.  While I still have this concern, the near term cycle of optical spending is likely to trump the longer-term risk of Silicon Photonics in my view.  In a way, Silicon Photonics will be to optical component stocks in 2013 like SDN was to networking stocks in 2012.  As a reminder, Cisco’s stock suffered in 2012 as SDN became a hot topic and VMWare acquired network virtualization specialist Nicira.  While SDN is still a hot topic, Cisco’s stock has performed well in the past several months as the company has beaten estimates, preserved its gross margin and SDN is not viewed a near term threat.  I think the optical cycle is recovering and we should see good spending trends in optical systems and components in 2013, as 2013 will likely be a recovery year after a difficult 2012. In addition, telecom capital spending trends continue to show positive momentum in 2013 as I mentioned above.  Thus, while there will continue to be a lot of discussion and analysis on how Silicon Photonics will impact optical component suppliers in the future, 2013 should be a year where optical companies beat Wall Street estimates.  I think such a playbook will allow optical stocks to further appreciate for a few more months.  Like telecom equipment stocks, optical component stocks are cyclical and they all have already appreciated significantly off the bottom.  Thus, upside from current levels may be limited and the stocks remain very risky and volatile. We should get further information on the status of the optical cycle and the threat of Silicon Photonics this week at the annual fiber optic OFC trade show, which I plan on attending.

Disclosure: I currently own Ericsson and JDSU mentioned in this blog.  NT Advisors LLC may currently and in the future solicit any company mentioned in this blog for consulting services.

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